TechLahore

Here is a list of our predictions for 2008. While most of these predictions have to do with technology and IT companies in Pakistan, some of them are political. We’ll circle back on Jan 1 2009 to see how accurate our crystal ball was; until then, we’d love to hear your opinions!

1. Macroeconomic Predictions
   1. GDP growth for next year will be around 5%, plus or minus .5%.
   2. The KSE will hit 15,000 in 2008.
   3. The Pak Rs. will exchange between 60 and 63 to US $1 through 2008.
2. Predictions about the Local Industry
   1. There will be a change of leadership at the PITB or the PSEB (at least one of the two) in 2008.
   2. PTCL will continue to lose landline customers in 2008; financial problems will continue especially during Q1 and Q2 ’08.
   3. The Punjab IT STP Tower will not be completed in time; it will be delayed by at least 3 months.
   4. WiMax will not be much of a success for Wateen in 2008; consumers will find it too expensive and corporations will stick mostly to wired broadband. Coverage will not be wide enough to truly benefit remote industry operations that don’t have wired broadband access readily.
   5. NetSol stock will not close at or above $4.50 for 10 consecutive trading sessions in 2008.
   6. 2008 will be an excellent year for Media Companies in Pakistan; they will see increased freedom, a growing viewership and an increased global footprint. As a corollary, Wordcall stock will rise at least 15% in 2008.
   7. 2008 will be the beginning of the end for dialup ISPs. As PTCL loses fixed line subscribers, WLL connections and broadband will become methods of choice for Internet access. Dialup user growth rates will slow in 2008 and the reversal will set in during 2009-2010.
   8. Power companies, professional services companies dealing with power and local power generation equipment manufacturers will see tremendous growth; electricity shortages will persist through 2008, but the situation will begin to remedy itself in early 2009. Shortages will propel the alternative energy and Natural Gas (CNG) based generator industry.
   9. Software licenses will be strongly enforced; it will be virtually impossible for any company with 40+ employees to not comply with licensing – in particular Microsoft licensing. This will drive some increased Linux adoption, but not in any significant measure.
3. Political Predictions
   1. The PPP and allies will form the next government in Pakistan
   2. Pakistan will have a new President in 2008, or at most, by the first quarter of 2009
   3. Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination and will win the 2008 election in the US

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