Lots of stuff will happen in 2012, but the world will not end. Sorry Mayans! (Image credit: TheAtlanticWire)

2012 is going to be a very interesting year. Elections are coming up in two very important countries, Pakistan (in early 2013) and the United States (2012). The US’ confrontation with Iran has both countries making threats and accusations and heading in a direction that seems to be escalatory. Further, the US has retreated from Iraq and violence there seems to be at an upswing. As someone said, the US-Iraq war is over. Iran won. Then, we also have the NATO drawdown in Afghanistan which has led to much drama and desperation on the part of the ISAF and NATO forces; as we predicted last year, the US is now openly saying that the Taliban are not a US enemy, the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, has been removed from the FBI’s most wanted list and US diplomats are now negotiating with the Taliban with no preconditions. In that the Taliban have not laid down their weapons and continue to control over 75% of Afghan territory, these negotiations appear to be more about NATO giving in to the Taliban position and figuring out how to withdraw in haste than the opposite.

And that’s just the geo-strategic picture. Lots of exciting technology is going to be introduced also this year, and all eyes are on Europe and America as the economic troubles enter their fifth year. Will this finally be the bottom and will we start heading in the right direction? I thought this would have happened in 2011, but I was wrong. So, what happens in 2012? Read on to find out.

Political and Geo-strategic Predictions

1. The PPP government in Pakistan will not be removed. They may choose to go for early elections once the Senate elections are completed, but no other force (Army, PTI etc.) will compel them to leave office. This will be good as it sets the tone for a long running democratic dispensation which self-adjusts to find a workable solution to governance in Pakistan.

2. The PPP will pull off a successful senate election, strengthening the President.

3. Memogate will not lead to Asif Zardari’s resignation.

4. Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination.

5. Romney will come pretty close to removing Obama, but Obama will scrape through. Personally, with all of Obama’s broken promises and false mantras of change, we would rather Romney win in his stead, not because we support Romney, but simply because we feel there should be some accountability for such a disastrous and damaging run in office.

6. The PTI will emerge as a political force post the next election, but nowhere near the numbers being claimed by Imran Khan who has suggested that it will be a Tsunami and will take an outright majority. Not even close.

7. 2012 will mark Pakistan’s strategic goodbye to America. There is still lots of discussion about whether regular business-as-usual relations between Pakistan and the US will resume, but we don’t think they will in the foreseeable future. In fact, the NATO massacre of Pakistani troops precipitated what had to happen anyway. Pakistan has simply had enough of the US pushing it around and asking for “more” when the US themselves, along with all their other allies, have done far less than Pakistan in prosecuting the WoT. The absolutely false claims of $20B in “aid”, which have been made repeatedly, have done nothing other than simply insult, irritate and anger both the Pakistani establishment and its populace. First off, it’s not as if this $20B was the figure of assistance for any single year. This paltry sum, which pales in comparison to the $600+B annual US defence budget, and the $1T+ spent on the lost war in Afghanistan, covers TEN years of supposed (and imaginary) assistance to Pakistan. Second, $20B have not actually been transferred, so the figure itself is nonsense. Third, the bulk of the money actually dispensed by the US has been for reimbursements, i.e. money ALREADY SPENT by Pakistan which the US OWES it. Fourth, the rest of this money has been spent through US agencies, contractors and mostly, on US goods. This means the effective value of every $1 spent by US AID is probably less than 25c of benefit to Pakistan. With the hefty, fees due to overpaid American consultants and vendors along with the unnecessary spending on transportation, very little actual benefit is accrued. In a nutshell, the real value of all US “AID” to Pakistan stands probably at 2-3% of the $80+Billion Pakistan has lost in the WoT. To top off the monetary exploitation, Pakistan has been bullied, the US press and media have been used as a veritable weapon in an unrelenting disinformation war against Pakistan and Pakistan’s interests (e.g. the IP(C) pipeline with Iran), on fundamental issues unrelated to the US or the WoT, have been repeatedly threatened. This simply cannot go on. We also believe that the death of this last US-Pakistan alliance will lead to Pakistan’s migration into the Asian camp, where it will work increasingly in concert with Russia and China in future, and will never again (at least for the next 30-50 years) consider an alliance with America.

8. Despite rumours, Gen. Pasha and Gen. Kiyani will not secure further extensions.

9. The bluster doesn’t past muster. The US will not attack Iran in 2012.

Technology Predictions

1. Windows 8 will be a significant force this year. It will rekindle interest in Windows as a consumer OS as a large number of tablets and phones will support it. 2012 is when Microsoft will really launch its counterattack against Apple, but unlike in the past, this will not be based on stealing marketshare from the iPhone, but grabbing as much interest from non-Smartphone and Blackberry users as possible. Windows Phone applications will touch 100,000 by the end of the year.

2. Microsoft will buy Nokia’s Smartphone division.

3. RIM had a terrible year, but the new Blackberry 10 products will begin to stop the bleeding. RIM still provides the most secure solution, and it is generating north of $5B in revenue every quarter, so it is a force to be reckoned with. There will be a lot of discussion around a RIM acquisition in 2012, but it will not happen.

4. Android will continue to grow at the expense of the iPhone and most of all, Symbian and RIM. In the end, though, we don’t quite understand what Android does for Google. In many respects, the fundamental desire Google had of owning the endpoint to ensure that access to its services would be smooth and uninterrupted, seems premised on the assumption that non-Google OSs somehow wouldn’t allow access (or at least, fair, open access) to Google. I am not sure this makes much sense, since Google services are available and used on all non-Android OSs. Either way, Android is definitely going to grow market share in 2012, probably by another 5-10 points.

5. Ultrabooks are going to be BIG this year. They will also, in concert with Windows 8, lead a PC renaissance which should stem Apple’s growth on the PC/Laptop side of the house. My gut tells me that Apple’s desktop/laptop marketshare will grow at 60-70% the rate at which it grew in 2011. Ultrabooks will put a dent…

6. The next iPad will come out with a) 2-3MP display resolution b) reduced entry level model price c) Siri integration d) dual core 1.2+Ghz processor. However, momentum for non iPad tablets will continue, especially with the advent of Windows 8 slabs. By the end of 2012, less than half of all tablets sold will be Apple iPads.

Financial Predictions

1. The KSE will post 10% growth this year. First, as explained below, the favourable USD-Rs. exchange ratio will make Pakistani stocks cheaper for foreign investors, and second, the continued reduction of WoT related violence inside the country will bring the stability necessary for growth in investor confidence. If it weren’t for 2012 being the run-up to an election and numerous political events punctuating the year (Musharraf’s return, court proceedings, PTI “jalsas”, Senate elections, pre-election politics and so on), this number would have been higher. In part, growth will also be helped by the beginnings of a global recovery in 2012.

2. The Pakistani Rs. will touch an exchange rate of Rs. 95 to $1 USD during the year. It may go as high as Rs. 100, but 95 is within reason. Some repayments to the IMF are coming up which will pressure the foreign reserve. We’ll get through it without all that much trouble, but a rise in the exchange rate can be safely assumed.

3. The Dow will show modest growth, around 5% for the year. The early part of 2012 will be marked with some optimism, with a dip hitting the middle of the year. The last few months of the year will show a recovery powered by fundamental improvements in economic indicators such as the unemployment rate, and some control over federal spending finally kicking in. The huge amounts of cash on corporate balance sheets also need to be spent at some stage and if 2012 looks safe, CFOs will let go of the purse strings, kicking off M&A and spurring some market growth.

4. Pakistan’s GDP will grow at about 4% during 2012.

5. There will be a reduction in the unemployment rate in the US, probably by about .3-.5%, ending at about 8.2% or so in December 2012.

6. Netsol touched a peak in 2011 and then fell to the ground in terms of stock value. 2012 will see improvement, but a peak of $1 is probably optimistic. Nonetheless, some money can be made on Netsol if it is bought around 40c and sold when it approaches 60-65c during 2012.

[Techlahore takes no responsibility for any financial projections or stock predictions. We are not advocating the purchase or sale of any security and are providing our opinions purely for general interest purposes. The reader assumes all responsibility for all his/her financial decisions, including the sale or purchase of any security.]

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MIT's famed dome... coming to a PC, laptop or tablet near you! (Image credit: Bustachange.com)

Someday, someone in an appropriately empowered government position in Pakistan needs to take a bold step forward and break through the bureaucracy and red tape government is despised for. There are so many incredibly high value, low cost initiatives to take up in areas as diverse as agriculture, education, energy and information technology that the shortage is not one of ideas, but simply that of initiative and vision.

Here at TechLahore, we’ve discussed some of these ideas before. Today, an announcement made by MIT compels us to talk of another…

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology, as one of the world’s foremost technology and engineering schools, needs no introduction. It is nothing less than one of America’s greatest strategic assets. MIT has produced graduates who have gone on to conduct pioneering research in defence, space technology, IT, material sciences, genetics and numerous other areas, advancing the state of the art for their country and the world at large. By some estimates, MIT graduates have contributed almost one trillion dollars worth of market capitalization to the US bourses. But as you may have heard, it’s not easy to get into MIT. Seats are limited, competition is tough and most of all, it’s expensive and remote for most of the citizens of the world. But what if the MIT experience could be bottled up and shipped across the internet to anyone who wanted to benefit from it? While it wouldn’t be exactly akin to attending classes at MIT physically – certainly the environment and some measure of interactivity would be lacking – it would, nonetheless, be a giant step forward.

MIT took this very step, in fact, some years ago, by launching their OpenCourseWare initiative. In a variety of formats, ranging from audio, slides to fully taped video lectures, a select group of courses were put online for anyone in the world to access without charge. You can learn more about OCW by visiting this MIT website. Now, MIT is taking this program to the next level. M.I.T.x as the new online learning initiative will be called, will expand the amount of content available and will also offer completion certificates to candidates who test well at the end of the self-paced “term”. This certificate will not be an MIT degree, nor will it bear the name of MIT, but will be granted by a non-profit set-up specifically for this purpose as an MIT affiliate. Nice as that might be, certificates and degrees are essentially pieces of paper. The real value is in the learning process and the acquired knowledge. Exposing oneself to a well designed, cutting edge curriculum, the added benefit of virtual presence in MIT classrooms through the magic of internet video, interaction with other learners via online discussion boards and finally, being “tested” without spending a single cent or leaving the comfort of home, is truly a revolutionary development!

Can this program be embraced by the Provincial or Federal governments in Pakistan? Can we deliver the MIT curriculum in classrooms at our institutions and use local teachers in a supportive role, making up for any loss of interactivity? Can we launch programs where, like the 100,000 free laptop distribution made by the Gov. of the Punjab, laptops and tablets can be gifted to any student that shows a completion certificate for some number of MIT engineering classes? Could we augment our virtual university curricula with this MIT content? What about providing free DVDs with all of this content to anyone in Pakistan who is interested and may not yet have the broadband connection to easily access the video component? How about selecting a few of the MIT freshmen courses and broadcasting them on TV – not only to teach, but also to spread awareness about this great resource? How about translating the videos into Urdu and even regional languages? There’s so much that can be done with this content… and with not much investment!

But with that said, even if the Government, as usual, doesn’t do anything, you and I can at least spread awareness about this great resource. To the extent we interact with learners, college students, those who are curious about science and engineering, folks that are not happy with the quality of education they might be receiving at a local institution – anyone with an interest – we can tell them about this resource. We can share MIT OCW videos with our friends on Facebook so they know this resource exists and can tell others. We can, when we have a few moments to spare, invest an hour or two to perhaps translate a video in Urdu. Anything we can do to spread news of this great resource and enhance its value will be of tremendous benefit to Pakistan.

This is a great step towards democratizing access to the world’s best education. And it’s not the only earth shattering, historically unparalleled change we’re seeing enabled through IT. It’s practically a new world out there, with more potential than has been available at any time in human history. Soon, location, geography and to a great extent – money – will no longer matter in very important ways. And with all of this magnificent change unfolding around us, it’s our job to go out and make something of these fabulous new opportunities. Let’s make it happen!

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TechLahore's 2011 predictions turned out to be the least accurate EVER! Hmph!

We’ve been publishing since 2007 and TechLahore is hence not exactly a “new” blog. As institutions age, they accrue tradition, and TechLahore is no different. Our December evaluations of the past year’s predictions have been happening now for the past several years. In January, we’ll follow-up with a new set of predictions for 2012.

Here are the past evaluations, in case you’re interested:

1. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2010
2. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2009
3. Evaluating TechLahore’s predictions for 2008

So, without further ado, let’s see how we fared this year:

Political Predictions

The parliament is not going anywhere. This PM may or may not last, but the Parliament is well on its way to completing its 5 years. I think it will navigate 2011 in tact. And if that happens, with less than a year to go in 2012, term completion will be well within sight and all but certain.

Spot on. The parliament is here and if the Army Chief’s recent statements are to be believed, no coup is in the offing.

The Congress Government in India will continue to get less popular and Mr. Manmohan Singh’s “clean” image will become a thing of the past. Corruption is going to be a massive story for India in 2011.

The Congress government has become a symbol of inefficiency and corruption in India. India has actually fallen further on the Transparency corruption index. Manmohan has lost the Mr. Clean image for sure. I’ll claim full credit here.

Mr. Obama will see an increase in his popularity rating. It currently stands at -12 according to the Rasmussen Reports. We’ll see how he ends the year up in 2011, but my guess is he could be close to neutral territory. This improvement will come from the improvement in economic conditions in 2011, as well as a greater willingness to work with the Republicans in the House.

Well, I was wrong on this one. Despite the fact that the Republicans were busy ripping each other apart, the Congress being a veritable ball and chain around the Presidency has resulted in a low approval rating. We said we’d use the Rasmussen Reports as our measure, and as per the latest poll in December 2011, Obama is still roughly where he started the year (-13).

Security and the situation in Northwest Pakistan

2010 saw a 35% reduction in the number of terror attacks. 2011 will continue that trend. There will be a close to 25% further reduction in the number of terror attacks. The reach of these attacks will, for the most part, stay limited to the Northwest. The Pakistan Army will make moves in the NWA region, but these will not be in the form of a full-fledged onslaught at the scale of the Swat operation.

According to the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, the number of deaths in 2011 fell by almost 40%! This was good news for Pakistanis, and in fact, the last half of the year saw an almost complete halt in terror attacks throughout the country. The few instances that did occur were limited to checkposts near or in the FATA areas.

NATO will begin to significantly ease up on operations in Afghanistan. They will still be there at the end of 2011, but will no longer be looking to aggressively take on the Taliban. Most of the fights between the two parties will occur as the Taliban attack NATO convoys, posts or bases. NATO may retaliate, but will not run a strategic campaign of any significance. 2011 is the year that will see an increase in outreach to Taliban and the beginnings of negotiating at a post-NATO agreement. The biggest priority for the US will now be negotiating an exit for themselves and NATO which will allow them to claim a victory, even though the reality will be far from it.

NATO has done almost nothing against the Taliban in Afghanistan. A couple of half-hearted thrusts here and there, with no real resolve for meeting any tangible goals. They have also talked about allowing the Taliban to setup an office in a Gulf state and have been engaged with negotiations with the so-called “enemy”. In fact, the only military action NATO engaged in this past year which made waves was an attack on two Pakistani checkposts, resulting in the martyrdom of 24 Pakistani soldiers. Viz the Taliban, the NATO mission in Afghanistan is pretty much finished. What remains is a negotiated settlement that allows the US room to depart without being chased.

2011 will see a reduction in the number of drone strikes in FATA, as compared to 2010.

The number of drone strikes this year was significantly less than last year. Here is the data.

Technology Predictions

Android will end 2011 as the dominant mobile platform. Apple will not be able to reverse the trend that began in 2010. I would predict that Android will go from its current 22.7% of the US smartphone market to close to 33%. Overall, while 30% of the current US population of cell phone users use smartphones, by the end of 2011, this 30% will grow to 45% at least. All these 2010  statistics are based on December estimates from Nielsen.

Hear hear! Android is now the defacto King of the mobile OSs. Android now accounts for 53% of smartphone shipments. I had said the US market share for Android will increase to 33%, and in reality, according to Nielsen it has gone past 42%. So I’ll take this one…

Tablets will be the major consumer device story in 2011. This shouldn’t come as a surprise. But non-Apple tablets will continue to increase their market share. Today, the iPad has 95% market share, but by the end of 2011, this will be reduced to 75%.

Yes and yes. Tablets were THE story of the year and non Apple tablets are now coming out the wazoo. As I had predicted, not only did the iPad’s market share fall, it fell a bit faster than I had predicted. According to IDC, it stands at 68% going into the holidays.

Mobile apps for phones and tablets will continue to attract more and more developer talent. I see 2011 ending with close to 700,000 apps available for all the major platforms. Currently, iOS and Android have about 400,000 apps between them and Blackberry probably another 12,000 or so. Windows Phone7 is so new, it hardly has any. By the end of 2011, you will likely see 400,000 iOS apps, 250,000 Android apps, 20,000 Blackberry apps and about 15,000 Phone7 apps. With tablet apps thrown in, this will get close to 700,000.

Apps grew much faster than even I had predicted. Apple announced that there are 500,000 iOS apps. Android stands at 250,000 apps. And Microsoft Phone7 is at 25,000. Blackberry hasn’t grown as fast, but net-net, the prediction I made of the total number of mobile apps exceeding 700,000 has come true. We are actually probably closer to a million than 750,000.

Pakistan’s software industry will see a good year. The momentum on the mobile development side will continue, and I see most of the established companies growing their teams and bringing on more talent. There are few metrics available to truly judge this, but we’ll pick a few leading illustrative cases in December 2011 and see how we fared.

Measured in almost every way, 2011 was a great year for Pakistani software. At APICTA, Pakistanis won more awards than ever before. Whereas 2010 saw one Pakistani mobile app make it to World #1, in 2011 there were two more. And the growth we are seeing has made many experts very hopeful. Current estimates suggest that we will exceed $10B by 2020.

Apple will launch the iPhone 5 this year, but it will be a defensive, bug fix kind of product rather than anything particularly innovative to help it leapfrog the numerous Windows Phone7 and Android devices hitting the market on a monthly basis. The biggest issue with the iPhone 4 was the antenna, and so the iPhone 5 will revolve around better antenna performance. Apple will do the usual dog and pony and claim that the iPhone 5 has the best designed antenna of any phone ever made etc. But in the end, the iPhone 5 will not succeed in stemming the tide of Android and Windows Phone7 phones. The important thing here is that 2011 will be the year of the commoditization of the Smartphone. There will be so many makes and models, with so many different OS choices that will offer basically equivalent functionality, that the market will start to make a shift towards the less expensive devices (i.e. Android).

I felt a shudder when I read that part about the new iPhone not being particularly “innovative”. Look at the new device. It wasn’t even a significant enough upgrade to merit the iPhone “5″ moniker. Apple stuck with 4S. And rightly so. The antenna issue is fixed, and other than the bundling of Siri, which was available as a free download for older iPhones prior to Apple’s acquisition of the company, there isn’t much to write home about. Android has left the iPhone in the proverbial dust. Yes, the iPhone is very much a market leader from an ease of use and proliferation of apps perspective, but Android phones now have faster radios, better screens, faster processors, more storage, better cameras and pretty much everything else.

We’ll learn a lot more about Windows 8 this year. While the central themes will be integration with the Cloud, make no mistake, this will be an honest-to-goodness PC operating system. It will showcase better visualization, add support for bigger, faster GPUs and will standardize 64-bit. We may see the first 128-bit mainstream OS among Windows 8′s several SKUs. No release in 2011 though, just more specificity on what the product will be and perhaps an alpha/CTP.

Windows 8 not only provides better visualization, it has an entirely reinvented Metro based UI for tablets. It does in fact standardize 64 bit and yes, there isn’t going to be a 2011 release. However, as predicted the CTP was launched this year. I’ll take this one… I was even right about it being an honest to goodness PC OS – one click and you’re back to the traditional Windows desktop.

Virtualization, which has commanded the enterprise IT airwaves since 2007-8, will begin to take a back seat to other trends. As services that were once virtualized start to migrate to the cloud and outsource PaaS infrastructures, the value of virtualization in the enterprise will diminish somewhat. Obviously, the level of adoption is tremendous so it will take some time to happen, but 2011 will be the turning point and this will become evident with the decreased “cool” factor and reduced coverage. On the desktop side, inexpensive PCs, numerous new form factors like tablets with native apps and cell phones equipped with projectors etc. will begin to chip away at the desktop virtualization value proposition. I don’t think this shift will be visible enough to most to cause a major reduction in, say, VMware’s stock price (hovering around $90 right now).

Cloud has overtaken the IT airwaves and while Virtualization remains a persistent meme, it is getting less airplay because it is becoming part of the “assumed” stack of capabilities. PaaS infrastructure has definitely grown, along with IaaS ala Amazon. Inexpensive PCs and tablets have been a core IT story throughout 2011, whether it be the Indian Akaash tablet, the Ainovo novo 7, the Amazon Kindle Fire or the about to be released Raspberry Pi. It’s all about sub-hundred dollar price points… So now let’s look at my VMware stock price prediction. I said there won’t be a huge increase because virtualization’s cool-factor will start to subside, but it won’t be significant enough to warrant a big price drop. Well, VMware stands at around $84 right now. A little less than last year, but just a little, as predicted.

Wateen and/or Warid will cease to be an independent operation in Pakistan. Their poor execution has cost them dearly. If it weren’t for the seemingly limitless capital available to them, they wouldn’t have survived as long as they have. They will likely be acquired by another major operator in the Pakistani market.

Wrong. Wateen is around. Crippled and in need of direction. But around.

Netsol stock on the NASDAQ (NTWK) will have a good year, with at least one close above $2.25 during the year.

Wrong. Netsol didn’t have a good year. I was right that it would close about $2.25, because it touched $2.39 in February. But it’s been a slide since then. So even though I was half right at least about the annual high, I won’t take this one.

Financial and Economic Predictions

Pakistan’s GDP will grow by at least 4%, likely 4.3%. The current estimates of two point some are utter nonsense.

Wrong. GDP was actually 2.37%, below what I had expected. Shucks.

The KSE will continue to rise. I expect it to benefit from the improvement in the global economic environment and the greater clarity in the regional strategic equation. I’m projecting an at-least 15% rise, but it could be as high as 25%. If it comes close to the latter, then we may approach KSE’s all-time highs in the 16K range!

Wrong. The KSE, along with world markets, declined. There was a high around 12,700 in January 2011, but the market trended southward given everything that has happened in the world from an economic standpoint this year. It ended the year about 4% in the red.

The US markets, the Dow and Nasdaq, will see an increase of about 8-10%.

Half right. The Dow went up by about 6%, but the Nasdaq declined by slightly less than 2%.

Job data will be watched super closely in the US. There will be some improvement this year, but I don’t think it will be very rapid. My estimate would say a .4-.6% reduction in the unemployment rate by the end of 2011.

Absolutely spot on. In Jan, unemployment was at 9%. By Nov 2011 it had declined by .4% to 8.6%.

The housing market in the US will begin a tedious, painful and slow journey to recovery. With properties having dropped anywhere from 30-70% over the last couple of years, this year will probably see a 5% increase in average home prices.

Wrong. While the housing market does appear to be turning around, it didn’t happen in 2011. There was probably a roughly 3% decline in average home prices across the US.

The Pakistani Rs. will see some weakening this year. It fought off pessimistic estimates of a drop to 100/$ but in 2011 we may see a 5% or so weakening with respect to the US$.

That’s just how it happened. Didn’t touch Rs. 100 to the dollar, but we’re at 90. So that does translate into a little over 5% weakening through the year.

Real estate prices will start to improve in Pakistan in 2011. More importantly, the number of deals being done will go up. I will use the index price of a 1 kanal plot in Gulberg, Lahore as an index when we revisit this in December 2011. The market price is currently at 1 crore 50 lacs.

This one is really hard to call. I have done a few informal tests with a few plots throughout the city and while there hasn’t been a decline, it’s not clear to me whether the asking price is something that is attracting buyers readily. I just don’t have enough data on this one to make a call. If you look at the lahorerealestate.com data for plots in Defence etc. the prices have risen just slightly.

So, where did we end up? 15 right (I’ll claim half credit for a couple) and 7 wrong. I think that might be the worst I’ve ever done. Most of where I fell short had to do with the economy in the US and Pakistan. Essentially, I was expecting a faster recovery than what has materialized. So what do I think will happen in 2012? Well, stay tuned for that post in January! Till then, HAPPY NEW YEAR!

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The best startup ideas from 2011 (Image credit: Blogsaays.com)

Rafe Needleman at C|net just published an interesting piece on the best startup ideas from 2011. Net-net, he says the following trends made it big through a variety of startups:

1) A focus on bringing technology to the physical world: Products that reach outside the digital realm and enable interactions with the physical world in interesting ways. Augmented reality anyone? Location awareness to tie the information experience with the physical? What about devices like medical monitors and other real world sensors that augment the digital experience?

2) Excellent design: This one is a no brainer. If Apple and Steve Jobs taught us anything it is that well designed trumps not well designed even if the more aesthetically appealing product lags behind on speeds and feeds. In 2012, we remain excited to see how some of Apple’s design philosophy gets “embraced and extended” with PC Ultrabooks. But Rafe’s point is not just about computer hardware. He makes a broader and completely accurate point about design now being super important for the success of a product – hardware or software.

3) Mining data: Both in the consumer and enterprise worlds, data is growing at unfathomable rates. On the consumer end, we have things like photographs, notes, documents, music and videos all moving into the cloud, needing to be searched and organized. And on the business side we have ever-increasing digitization of records and transactions, a larger number of surveillance cameras providing higher quality digital footage than ever before, automated supply chains, enterprise application integration, ERP implementations moving down the chain and into the cloud and so on. There is LOTS of opportunity to mine data and make sense of it.

4) Platforms: True, the platform concept is a tough sell as either a new idea or something that too many people can get off the ground. But if you can build a platform and make it succesful by developing a consumption and supply ecosystem around it, it sure as heck makes for a killer business model with lots of inherent barriers to competitive entry. Facebook, after all, is not necessarily the finest implementation of a social network – just the most powerful and adopted platform of all social networking properties. That’s why Google and others can’t unseat it so easily. Building platforms is IN fo’ sho’.

5) Putting people/consumers in touch with each other: A central theme in the information revolution is breaking down barriers to communication. Theoretically, the Internet puts everyone on earth in touch with any other fellow earthling. In reality, the contact needs to be brokered within a particular context (i.e. education, social networking, commerce and so on). Properties that put people in touch with others and create some value from that contact – whether by enabling consumer to consumer commerce, or learner to learner education – are hot.

What do you think are some additional hot idea memes that took off in 2011? What do you think will stay hot through 2012? We’d love to hear your views.

For more on this, directly from the horse’s mouth, visit C|Net.

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Whacksy Taxi is fun, well designed and another entrant in a growing line of successful apps made in Pakistan

Mindstorm Studios is a Lahore based gaming studio which rose to fame a couple of years ago with their brilliant Cricketing title for the PC, called “Cricket Revolution”. Their game, which we covered here at TechLahore, was so detailed and well crafted that they scored a contract with the International Cricket Council (ICC) to develop the official World Cup 2011 title. After these wins, Mindstorm decided to diversify beyond sports oriented games and launched some casual gaming apps for the Android and iOS platforms. Their current best seller is a well designed, fun to play title called “Whacksy Taxi”. This is a Breakout style game which plays at a dizzyingly fast pace and takes the gamer through a tour of various US cities, trying to avoid congested traffic in three lanes.

Here’s a video review by the popular gaming site, AppSpy:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKmkDlnBr-c

For more information on Mindstorm and their other exciting gaming titles, visit their website here.

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Hazardous Highway for Android by Pepper.pk has clocked more than 50,000 downloads in under 30 days

After their numerous BlackBerry successes, Pepper.Pk is now in the process of scoring another hit with their Android game, “Hazardous Highway“. The app just won a “Best App Award” from the Android review site, BestAppsMarket, and installs are rocketing. Here’s the install graph from the Android marketplace, which shows adoption over the past month, since the app was released, and presents a very pretty picture:

The download graph from the Android Marketplace shows that adoption has hit the "knee of the curve"

In response to Pepper.pk’s previous mobile application successes, they got a lot of feedback and requests to start developing more aggressively for the Android platform. Hazardous Highway is one of about a half dozen applications they currently sell on the Android marketplace. In comparison to their overall portfolio of 150+ applications, this is not all that significant, but hopefully over time, they’ll build out their Android portfolio further.

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Iran is now in possession of the most advanced US drone, the RQ-170 "Beast of Kandahar"

It seems to be drone season here at TechLahore! Right after we wrote about Pakistan’s Burraq UCAV, one of the hottest pieces of news that came out revolved around the downing or “forced landing” of a top secret US drone in Iran. The RQ-170, also known as “The Beast of Kandahar” was only deployed in late 2009 and represents the absolute cutting edge in American reconnaissance and autonomous drone/UAV technology. Early reports about the incident revolved around the debate of whether the drone had in fact been downed, what kind of drone it was, how it was downed and so on. It took several days for the facts to come to light. Initially, the US had declared via ISAF, that a drone “may” have “strayed” into Iran as a consequence of loss of control during a mission over eastern Afghanistan. On the face of it, this was a ridiculous position to take because it wouldn’t make sense for the US to use a stealth drone for missions over Afghanistan, a country over which it has complete airspace control. Following this, a US spokesperson explicitly confirmed that satellite pictures had shown the drone lay utterly destroyed and was hence not going to be useful to the Iranians. Then further tidbits of information started to come out. That in fact the drone was not operated by ISAF, but by the CIA. That in fact it was conducting a spy mission over Iran. And yes, that the drone was in tip-top shape and was, rather unfortunately, the vaunted RQ-170.

All this was rather embarrassing and quite reminscent of the May Day incident in 1960 when Nikita Khruschev’s Soviet Union shot down Francis Gary Powers’ U2 spy-plane. Interestingly, the Soviets held on to the wreckage for a day or so and let the Americans proclaim that the aircraft downed over the USSR was in fact a “weather balloon”. Once the U2 wreckage was shown, President Eisenhower had to back down from this position. But confidence was high in the US that Gary Powers would have either died, or would have taken the poison pill was he supplied with. Neither happened, and three days into the incident, Gary Powers was paraded in Moscow, leading to a very unfortunate situation for the US State Dept. By the way, if you are interested in learning more about the U2 incident, you should read Michael Beschloss’ excellent book on the subject, titled “May Day”.

But let us come to the topic we are exploring here today. Now that Iran has this drone, what US tech has possibly been compromised? What could the Iranians learn from this and what areas should the US now be super-careful about? Here’s what we think:

1. Airframe and low-observable design: While this is by no means the most important piece of information that can be gleaned from this drone, being in possession of a confirmed LO platform does allow someone to analyze it completely and replicate it. As far as the physical elements of design which contribute to stealth go, Iran should be able to get 100% of that information simply by observing, measuring and modeling this aircraft.

2. Materials: Reverse engineering many materials is entirely possible by studying their chemical composition. For example, RAM coatings. If the RQ-170 employs these, they should be analyzable and replicable given a reasonably advanced chemical industry, which Iran certainly has. It is not unreasonable to expect that Iran will be able to reverse engineer any chemical RAM coatings/”paint” used on the RQ-170.

3. Propulsion: There are two elements involved here; the engine itself, and the techniques used to reduce the engine’s heat/sound signature. Let me start by tackling the first. We don’t know how advanced the power plant in the RQ-170 is, but reverse engineering a complex jet engine may not be possible in a short timeframe. Would it be particularly important? Probably not, because the RQ-170 is not known for its high performance in terms of power or speed. Could Iran pass on information about the engine to the Russians and Chinese and let them study it for what that’s worth? Sure. But this should not be a particularly interesting subject for the Iranians in the RQ-170 context… to our minds, at least.

4. Techniques used for signature reduction: The RQ-170 design will likely employ numerous techniques to reduce the heat (IR) signature emanating from the engine or other active sources in the aircraft. It would also likely use techniques to reduce audio signature. Iran can definitely get a lot of value by studying the design, materials used and techniques employed to achieve this signature reduction. The Iranians have their own stealth project, the “Sofre Mahi”. This analysis could help them advance that stealth fighter development effort.

5. The actual audio signature of the RQ-170: This speaks more to detecting the presence of aircraft like the RQ-170 in future. For example, does the powerplant in the ’170 give off a particular “whine”, i.e. does it have a distinct audio signature? Depending on whether this is a high frequency, it could be possible to deploy audio sensors particularly tuned to listen for this pitch as a means for detection.

6. The all-aspect radar signature of the RQ-170: No design is perfect. There may be certain aspects which produce a higher signature than others. Now that Iran can study the full response profile of an RQ-170, it may learn more about how to detect these aircraft in future using radar configurations.

7. The cameras and sensors: This would be a huge asset for the Iranians in two ways. First, they will now know the exact capabilities of this surveillance platform in terms of resolution, light spectrum performance and numerous other aspects. This means they could plan on how to evade such surveillance. Because it takes a long time to develop new cameras which provide a quantum leap in capability, for some time, the Iranians will now know and understand the US state of the art. This might help them work around these capabilities for the foreseeable future. Second, if not in all respects, at least some pieces of the camera will be useful to Iran from a reverse engineering perspective. High quality optics and CCD sensors may be replicable only with assistance from China, but given the political realities of today, We can safely assume the Chinese will be leveraged in this case. The sensors are not just limited to cameras; legend has it that the RQ-170 can pick up chemical traces and can also intercept electronic communication. All these sensors would be a windfall not only because Iran can now learn how to avoid detection, but also due to the reverse engineering possibilities.

8. The transceivers: There will be numerous transceivers on board and each of these will give the Iranians lots of information that can be used to develop cyber warfare capabilities to neutralize US drones, and also the means to eavesdrop on US communications. For example, the satellite transponder will tell the Iranians exactly which frequencies are used by US drones for sat link-up. Could the Iranians develop balloon-based transmitters that “jam” or “spoof” these frequencies and deploy these over their own country, thus making it difficult for these drones to have a clean sat linkup? The Iranians will also discover the frequencies and methods used for line-of-sight control of these drones – these can similarly be useful to jam, confuse or otherwise take control of the drone. If the Iranians are to be believed, they have already mastered the art of the forced drone takeover, but being in physical possession of the transponders can only help them more. But what about encryption, you might ask. Hang on… I’ll get to that.

9. The algorithms: This is a tough one. One line of thought says that it would be impossible to extract any “code” from this platform. Perhaps. But another line of thinking says that the processors and controllers employed in military projects are not much different to those available commercially. Yes, they have much higher tolerances and quality standards, but a lot of the basic technology is the same. The RQ-170 would likely be full of programmed controllers which carry “firmware” or code that encapsulates various algorithms employed by the aircraft. For example, what does the aircraft do when sat link up is lost? Knowing these behaviours can help Iran advance their own drone and stealth programs, as well as understand how to foil the functioning of the RQ-170 and other US drones (it is likely that many of these control algorithms and “protocols” would be similar for many US drone types). But can the Iranians get to the “code”? Wouldn’t it be encrypted? Yes. It would be. But blackbox reverse engineering techniques can still be used where a certain set of inputs are applied and the output behaviour studied. You may not see the code, but you know what it does.

10. Encryption: This would apply both to the radio/satellite transceiver links as well as to any data or code stored on the RQ-170′s own systems. It is important to point out that just knowing specifically what kind of encryption is being employed, and being in possession of a “decoder”, i.e. the RQ-170, is going to help the Iranians, and possibly the Chinese. Recall that a big effort during WW-II involved the allies just getting their hands on an Enigma machine, the German encryption device. Will the RQ-170 be an “Enigma” for Iran or China? Obviously, the state of the art in encryption has advanced and it won’t be quite that simple. However, it is also important to point out that the Chinese are definitely in possession of equipment that poses a significant decryption threat. Take a look at the top 10 super computers and you’ll find that China was #1 until just a few months ago, and will be #1 again soon. The massive computational power required to decrypt at least some of the information assets aboard the RQ-170 might well be within China’s reach. Quantum computing, in particular, has shown that encryption is not as strong as once thought.

There are probably many more hidden secrets aboard the ’170, but in the interest of keeping this a “Top 10″ list, we’ll take a breather here and see how events unfold.

At the end of the day, we all just want peace and calm in the world. It’s not clear what man has ever achieved by going at his fellow man’s throat. Let’s hope things calm down globally and we can finally live in a peaceful world where Veena Malik’s antics are the only polarizing issue!

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Ally China is pursuing a number of UCAV projects. So is Pakistan...

Since the war on terror started in Afghanistan back in 2001, the United States Air Force has employed various different UAV platforms to target insurgents and the Taliban. Both on Afghan soil as well as in Pakistani territory, with the covert approval of the Pakistan government. Observing the efficacy of UAV platforms like the Predator, the Pakistani military establishment requested the United States to equip it with UAVs so that the war on terror could be prosecuted with more efficacy on the part of the Pakistani military. However these requests were denied repeatedly and America cited the potential use of these UAV platforms in military theaters outside the Afghan Pakistan border (i.e. India) as a flimsy excuse. Faced with these denials, but unwavering in its resolve to achieve its objectives, Pakistan undertook a domestic UAV development program. Even prior to Predator requisition requests being turned down, the Pakistani military had already invested in various autonomous target drones, built both by the private and public sectors. Here at TechLahore, we covered Pakistani drone developments a couple of years ago. In fact, we pointed out that the level of sophistication was such that – in a rather ironic twist -private Pakistani drone  manufacturers were exporting UAVs even to the United States homeland security department for oversight applications on the US-Mexico border.

Since then, much has happened. Pakistan entered into a deal with the Italian firm, Selex-Galileo, for the licensed production of fairly capable UAV aircraft at the Kamra Aeronautical facilities. In addition, the Pakistan Navy also acquired rotorcraft drones from foreign sources. Separately, the Pakistan Army has pursued partnerships with China and has incented local manufacturers to continue to develop more advanced platforms within the country. One of the more promising UCAV projects currently in progress in Pakistan is the Burraq armed drone. Burraq is envisioned as a high endurance, long-range, over the horizon, armed UAV aircraft. For the last four years it has been under development and rumors are now surfacing that it may be ready for deployment. At the recent Zhuhai airshow in China, in which the Pakistan Air Force participated with its JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft, Chinese manufacturers also displayed miniaturized lightweight missiles that were particularly suited for carriage on a drone. Various parts of this sprawling Pakistani drone development program are coming together, in partnership with China – weapons development, control systems development, propulsion, airframe, ground stations and much else. The Burraq will only the first in a line of capable, armed Pakistani drones.

And soon. The Burraq, it seems, will be flying in early 2012.

Pakistan's locally produced Falco UAV was built in collaboration with Italy's Selex-Galileo. The Air Force is now looking to arm it with miniaturized missiles.

The Pakistani UAV program is a wonderful example of the breadth of technological capability that exists in the country, its ability to collaborate internationally without relying on problem-ridden dealings with America, and the benefits of investing in local development and local manufacturing as opposed to wiring a ton of money to a foreign country and importing somebody else’s equipment (Saudi Arabia style). As with the JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft, Pakistan will discover that the flexibility of owning and running a domestically developed military platform allows unending customization, full control of capabilities, and absolutely no worries with regards to security or someone else knowing its true performance, or even inhibiting the capabilities by doctoring the IFF system or other internal electronics. Not only that, but for private technological firms based in Pakistan a program of this nature creates tremendous economic opportunity. A variety of different inputs, ranging from materials to software to optics to electronics and propulsion technologies are required to build a high-tech UAV. A sophisticated military program such as the Burraq will lead not only to an improvement in Pakistan’s defensive and offensive military capabilities, but also in significant benefits for the economy and local industry.

We hope that in future, with military programs such as Burraq, the continued development of the spectacularly successful JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft and its various space technology ventures, Pakistan will continue to create domestic research and development capabilities which will ensure a brighter future for its people and a credible defense against any would-be aggressor.

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Pakistan buries its dead after an unprovoked NATO attack killed 24 servicemen

Stratfor is one of the most respected strategic forecasting organizations in the world. They provide strategic intelligence to large corporations – including all the major financial institutions – and  a significant part of their membership is comprised of former and serving military officers in the western world. George Friedman, the Founder of Stratfor, has also written numerous books regarding the future of the world from a strategic and political perspective. Two of his books which I have read and particularly enjoyed are “The Next Decade” and “The Next 100 Years“. While I don’t agree with all of Mr. Friedman’s conclusions, a lot of his perspectives are right on the money. Here at TechLahore, we’ve previously featured Stratfor’s forecasting and you can take a look at that post here.

Much has been written and said about the most recent flareup in Pakistan-US relations. The crisis resulted from an unprovoked NATO attack on two Pakistani checkposts, leading to the martyrdom of 24 Pakistani army personnel, including two officers. In response, Pakistan ordered the eviction of US troops from a key air base in Balochistan, shut down all NATO supply lines, ordered troops on the border to fire at will in the even that NATO violates Pakistan’s territorial borders again and is undertaking a full review of all cooperation with NATO. What is very important to consider is how the immediate future will be shaped in context of this incident. Will this result in greater tensions between the two countries? A shooting war perhaps? Does NATO have the upper hand? Does Pakistan hold any strategic cards? These are all questions that are being asked by millions in Pakistan, the wider South/Central Asian region and indeed, the West.

What complicates the situation further is that while there are two land supply routes that can be used; one through Pakistan, and the other through Russia and Central Asian States (i.e. the Northern Distribution Network, or NDN), suddenly, both these supply lines have been put at risk. The supply line via Pakistan is by far the most inexpensive and efficient, by a factor of 10, while the NDN is long, circuitous and dependent on the cooperation of not one, but numerous countries. That wouldn’t have been so bad if all the countries through which the NDN runs were pro-NATO, but unfortunately for the US military, that is not the case. Russia, in particular, incensed over US efforts to deploy a missile shield in Europe, and also due to an increasingly belligerent American Middle East agenda which now seeks to implement regime change by force in both Syria and Iran, has openly threatened to cut off all NATO’s remaining supply lines.

Stratfor’s take on all of this, is as follows:

The United States and NATO have been exposed as waging a war that depended on the willingness of first Pakistan and now increasingly Russia to permit the movement of supplies through their respective territories. Were they both to suspend that privilege, the United States would face the choice of going to war to seize supply lines — something well beyond U.S. conventional capacity at this time — or to concede the war. Anytime a force depends on the cooperation of parties not under its control to sustain its force, it is in danger.

The issue is not whether the threats are carried out. The issue is whether the strategic interest the United States has in Afghanistan justifies the risk that the Russians may not be bluffing and the Pakistanis will become even less reliable in allowing passage. In the event of strategic necessity, such risks can be taken. But the lower the strategic necessity, the less risk is tolerable. This does not change the strategic reality in Afghanistan. It simply makes that reality much clearer and the threats to that reality more serious. Washington, of course, hopes the Pakistanis will reconsider and that the Russians are simply blowing off steam. Hope, however, is not a strategy.

In a nutshell, NATO has no option but to back off and make nice with both Russia and Pakistan. In Mr. Friedman’s opinion, there are only two options. The first is to concede the war in Afghanistan and run. And the second is to fight yet another war to secure an over-land supply route. The second option, he explains, is impossible and beyond the current means and capabilities of both the US and NATO.

Ignoring the emotion and the rhetoric, we agree with Mr. Friedman. The US has lost the war in Afghanistan and nothing can change that. However, the stakes at the moment involve a safe retreat vs. an absolute, unmitigated military disaster which would dwarf Vietnam. Given these two choices, the US and NATO will have to back off. As a consequence, the alliance with Pakistan will continue, but now, more so on Pakistan’s terms.

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Wheat fields in Haripur Hazara. Pakistan can be an agricultural powerhouse with just a little strategic thinking on the part of its government. (Photo credit: Daniyal Gilani, Flickr)

For 5,000 years, the economic well being of the people of what is now Pakistan has been secured through agriculture. Even as Pakistan has rapidly modernized over the last 6 decades since independence, a very large component of the economy is still agriculture based. And in these days of population pressure globally, shortfalls of cultivable land, food security issues and rising food prices, this can be a tremendous asset for the country. Our strength in agriculture and farming is borne out by the numbers. We are the world’s 4th largest producer of milk, we export more than $24B worth of textiles annually based on the strength of our cotton production, we have one of the largest populations of farm animals – over 50M – in the country, and our wheat production stands at number 6 in the world. There are many other areas where Pakistan has unassailable competitive advantages, for example, in the fact that the variety of citrus produced in Pakistan is far more diverse than in any other country of the world, or that the mangoes grown in Pakistan are – without doubt – the richest and best on the globe.

Yet, so much more can be done. I have always been of the strong belief that Pakistan actually has no economic problems beyond mismanagement and poor planning. There are no inherent, structural reasons why Pakistan cannot rapidly develop to the levels of a first-world economy, and take its population of 180M along with it. There are very simple and – in the grand scheme of things – tiny steps that we can take to completely alter our economic picture. Let’s take a part of our agricultural sector; wheat production, as an example. We produce 24M tonnes of wheat per year, which is quite a bit. Yet, our per acre yield, at between 23-25 Maunds per acre, is the lowest in the world amongst major agri economies. If we increased yield to Australian or European levels (as high as 70 Maunds per acre), we would have an excess of between 30-40M tonnes of exportable wheat per year, from the existing land under cultivation. This would mean a minimum of an extra $10B of exports annually, given current international wheat prices. The reality is that these prices have been increasing over the past few years and with the world population expected to hit close to 10B in 2050, they won’t be going in the other direction any time soon.

Our own domestic consumption is in the neighbourhood of 20M tonnes per year. So the difference between 24M tonnes, and 70M tonnes is massive from an economic perspective. It is the difference between merely fulfilling our own needs and reaping a windfall by exporting a precious commodity, and one of strategic importance for almost the entire agri-poor middle east; a region which is not only close to us geographically, but with which we also share strong cultural and diplomatic ties. To put things in perspective, just this one change alone – with all other things staying the same – would mean an immediate increase of 5.2% in our per-capita income. Not only this, the fact that this would be $10B in foreign exchange, the need for IMF programmes would simply not exist. Which further means that the conditionalities and high-interest rate debt servicing also goes away. So the net-positive effects of just this one small thing would be tremendous and would result in immeasurable benefits by freeing up what is spent in debt servicing today, so that it can be redirected to high-yield infrastructure and human resource development investments.

The reason I used the example of wheat was just to illustrate how simple it is for Pakistan to make a quantum leap forward, developmentally and economically. With nothing other than basic technology – which we are in possession of – the adoption of best practices, but most importantly, the political will, we could revolutionize our agricultural sector, and hence our economy. If a new government were elected to power tomorrow and all it did was focus on a three point agenda of 1) Bringing wheat yields to Australian levels 2) Implementing drip irrigation – which saves up to 60% of the water used in flood irrigation and 3) Investing in export-quality food processing industries, this alone would make Pakistan the world’s fastest growing economy. It would free us of all water woes, as 70+% of our water usage is for agriculture, and 60% of that is wasted due to our use of ancient flood techniques. Drip irrigation is far more efficient, and could reduce our national water consumption by up to a staggering 50%! If we could export the excellent halal meat, mangoes, citrus, flowers and other agricultural products we produce, not as bargain basement prices, but in processed, high-quality forms (by transforming our milk into branded cheese products, for example), it would bring revenue streams we have never had and connect them to the poorest Pakistanis, while earning mountains of foreign exchange for the country.

This is a small example of how incredibly small, inexpensive programs can have a massive impact on the national economy, our growth rates and the future of Pakistan. We hope those in power, and those with influence, will finally pay heed and stop artificially quelling Pakistan’s natural growth rate; a number which will approach or exceed 10% with even the smallest of strategic investments in promising sectors like agriculture.

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